Wednesday saw broad-based selling across global equity markets as various underlying risks become more pronounced. Stock indices sank around 2.5% – 3.5%, while the FX space saw solid demand for the greenback as the prime safe-haven currency of choice.
One of the main factors behind yesterday’s sell-off is the dramatic increase in Covid-19 cases across some parts of the US. Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma are all experiencing massive infection surges which are producing some of the highest rates seen since the virus spread to America at the start of the year. Reopening processes are having to be delayed to prevent further increases which is in turn spooking the market that this may become a much broader theme.
Another factor involved in yesterday’s market rout: a downgrade to the global outlook by the IMF. Just as the European afternoon session kicked off, the International Monetary Fund announced its fresh outlook for the world economy which was not pretty viewing. They now see a much deeper and prolonged recession than in their previous forecasts a couple of months ago. This added fuel to the fire, which produced another leg lower in risk assets.
Today is a new day and many participants will be testing waters to see if more weakness is on the cards. On the data front, ECB meeting minutes are scheduled for lunchtime. Following this, a raft of US data will arrive which will include GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods, and trade balance numbers.
Written by Viv Savani. 8:24am, June 25th 2020
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