It feels like Groundhog Day as many media outlets rewrite the same story about PM May losing yet another ‘meaningful vote’. No denying, the numbers are moving in her favour but that’s no excuse for the peculiar strategy of requesting MPs continue to vote on her deal over and over. This week will be no different to last – a big emphasis on Brexit as we get even closer to the new April 12th deadline. A new dynamic has entered the scene as many speculate over the prospects for a general election and a new Conservative leader.
Today will see another round of votes take place in Parliament as MPs try and create a clear path for the government to follow. It’s become apparent the prime minister will stubbornly attempt to have another vote on her deal, possibly as early as tomorrow. This comes as 170 Conservative MPs have written to May requesting that she ensures the UK leave the EU within the next couple of weeks with or without a deal.
This week also sees another round of PMI data from the UK. The pound has remained relatively stable recently. It remains in a broad range of $1.30 – $1.33 and €1.15 – €1.18 against the US dollar and euro, respectively. It’s highly likely these ranges will be broken this week as it’s now crunch time with the phrase “no-deal” being used rather a lot over the weekend. GBP exposed clients please be aware what the next couple of weeks may bring and ensure steps are taken to mitigate the high levels of risk present.
Elsewhere, US data will come in thick and fast this week. The data will take on extra importance due to the current hype around the health of the US economy and therefore the prospects for the global outlook. Lest we not forget the old adage – America sneezes and the world catches a cold. The main reports to watch out for this week include: non-farm payrolls (170K new jobs expected in March), retail sales and the last gauge of the manufacturing sector.
Written by Viv Savani. 8:45am, April 1st 2019
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10:48am, November 19th 2018
A big few days for UK politics in a holiday shortened week