The next few days will be dominated by all things Brexit. It’s no secret Theresa May is struggling to muster enough votes to pass her withdrawal agreement tomorrow.
Tomorrow’s Brexit vote in Parliament has been eagerly anticipated for a number of weeks now, ever since her original vote saw a huge deficit of 230 MPs. It’s no surprise she’s struggling to achieve any meaningful concessions from the European Union and, as a result, faces another defeat in Parliament. So, if she does lose Tuesday’s vote, what happens next? Theresa May has promised lawmakers an immediate vote the next day on whether the UK should leave with ‘no deal’. This vote would take place on Wednesday and would likely be rejected. From this point Parliament would then have another vote taking place, most likely on the Thursday, where MPs will decide whether to arrange a ‘limited’ delay. The pound’s reaction will be closely watched across this week, it’s hard to envisage any sharp and significant drops unless we saw a failed vote for May’s deal followed by a vote to leave with ‘no deal’. However, the odds of this are very slim.
Elsewhere, this week sees some key US economic reports. This follows a much softer than expected jobs report last Friday which only saw 20K jobs added to the economy in the month of February. This week hosts a delayed retail sales report from January, February inflation numbers on Tuesday and durable goods on Wednesday. It’s worth noting, all these reports will be released at 1230 instead of 1330 due to US daylight savings.
Written by Viv Savani. 9:19am, March 11th 2019
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