As both the month and Q3 drew to a close last night, the US dollar ended the session weaker against many of its major counterparts. The pound rose to $1.29 while EURUSD pushed toward the $1.18 handle. Commodity currencies fared the best yesterday, with AUDUSD & NZDUSD the star performers.
The buck’s bad performance was a little surprising. ADP private payroll data showed that almost 800,000 new private-sector jobs were added to the US economy in September, much more than forecast. Second to this, pending US home sales jumped 8% last month, almost double what was expected. Also, the Democrats and Republicans are now once again at the negotiating table over a new round of stimulus. However, both sides have quite different views around just how much assistance should be provided. The Dems are pushing for $2+ trillion with the Republicans naturally urging a smaller, more conservative amount. To many participants, yesterday’s anti-dollar flows may simply be down to month/quarter-end flows, implying the buck could now see another fresh round of bids.
As a new month begins today, the focus will remain around a fresh batch of economic data. Today we will see official September manufacturing PMIs. Also, in the spotlight will be an EU leaders summit which could bring attention back to the ongoing and volatile Brexit situation. Investors will also be preparing for tomorrow’s key US non-farm payrolls report.
Written by Viv Savani. 8:16am, October 1st 2020
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