It’s not often we can state this about an ECB announcement but today’s should have traders and dealers on the edge of their seats.
The Eurozone economy has slowed down significantly in 2019 with many forecasting a technical recession in Germany when Q3 numbers are released. Manufacturing across the region has tumbled, in line with the global slowdown which is being witnessed in China, the US and UK. The central bank have moderately prepared markets for additional stimulus but just how far the central bank go is exactly what everyone is waiting to find out.
It’s almost guaranteed the central bank lower interest rates by 10 – 20 basis points but from here it’s anyone’s guess. Mario Draghi has hinted he’s willing to go full-force (relaunching quantitative easing). However, he’s seen stiff opposition from his peers including prominent German central banker, Jens Weidman.
The announcement on interest rates and QE will arrive at 1245 while the press conference with Mario Draghi will follow at 1330. The euro will no doubt be exceptionally volatile in the run-up to the event, during and after too. Please let your Cornhill contact know if there are any particular price levels you’d like monitored across the trading day.
Elsewhere, the US consumer price index is scheduled to cross the wires at 1330. This is a key release and always has the power to influence the Federal Reserve’s thinking. The datapoint will add to the huge levels of volatility which will filter through the EURUSD pair today.
8:28am, September 12th 2019
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