The US Dollar, Great British Pound and Euro will all be in focus today as economic data, emergency summits and monetary policy decisions take place. Volatility is sure to be on the rise as market participants quickly interpret new developments.
The US dollar will be subject to movement based on fundamental economic data. Lunchtime will see the latest set of inflation numbers (13:30), while in the evening, minutes from the Fed’s last meeting in March are scheduled for release (19:00). Momentum is definitely with the greenback at present. It feels like it’s the best of a bad bunch, just as the IMF downgrades the outlook for global growth, again!
The pound will be under pressure today as PM May awaits official confirmation from the EU regarding an extension. It appears her request for a shorter time frame has been blocked as the EU feel this would simply create a number of new extension requests whilst political impasse in the UK rumbles on and on. It’s likely a longer option will be presented to the Prime Minister, one which pushes the leave date out to the end of the year or up to March 2020. The emergency summit will take place across the whole day, an announcement is expected in the afternoon/early evening.
Mario Draghi will take centre stage today. It’s time for another European Central Bank decision. Another dovish performance is expected from the central banker but there is a chance he acknowledges improvement within the services sector. The euro has been on the back foot throughout 2019 and it seems there’s no reason to change this view as of yet. The ECB have many things to be concerned about at present from Italy’s recession to the threat of tariffs on cars, cheese & wine from President Trump. As usual the policy decision will be announced at 12:45 with the hour-long press conference beginning at 13:30.
Written by Viv Savani. 8:42am, April 10th 2019
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